Synthesized trade-off analysis of flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty: An application to the central business district of Shanghai

Hu，Hengzhi1; Tian，Zhan2; Sun，Laixiang3,4,5; Wen，Jiahong1; Liang，Zhuoran6; Dong，Guangtao7; Liu，Junguo2

2019-12-01

10.1016/j.watres.2019.115067

WATER RESEARCH   影响因子和分区

0043-1354

1879-2448

Coastal mega-cities will face increasing flood risk under the current protection standard because of future climate change. Previous studies seldom evaluate the comparative effectiveness of alternative options in reducing flood risk under the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall. Long-term planning to manage flood risk is further challenged by uncertainty in socioeconomic factors and contested stakeholder priorities. In this study, we conducted a knowledge co-creation process together with infrastructure experts, policy makers, and other stakeholders to develop an integrated framework for flexible testing of multiple flood-risk mitigation strategies under the condition of deep uncertainties. We implemented this framework to the reoccurrence scenarios in the 2050s of a record-breaking extreme rainfall event in central Shanghai. Three uncertain factors, including precipitation, urban rain island effect and the decrease of urban drainage capacity caused by land subsidence and sea level rise, are selected to build future extreme inundation scenarios in the case study. The risk-reduction performance and cost-effectiveness of all possible solutions are examined across different scenarios. The results show that drainage capacity decrease caused by sea-level rise and land subsidence will contribute the most to the rise of future inundation risk in central Shanghai. The combination of increased green area, improved drainage system, and the deep tunnel with a runoff absorbing capacity of 30% comes out to be the most favorable and robust solution which can reduce the future inundation risk by 85% (±8%). This research indicates that to conduct a successful synthesized trade-off analysis of alternative flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty is bound to be a knowledge co-creation process of scientists, decision makers, field experts, and other stakeholders.

China Climate change Cost-effectiveness Decision-making under deep uncertainty Urban flood solutions

SCI ; EI

英语

NI期刊 ; NI论文

其他

UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund[AJYG-643BJQ]

Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources

Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources

WOS:000493221600020

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD

20193807442819

Climate change ; Cost effectiveness ; Economic and social effects ; Flood control ; Rain ; Risk perception ; Sea level ; Subsidence ; Uncertainty analysis

Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Precipitation:443.3 ; Oceanography, General:471.1 ; Soils and Soil Mechanics:483.1 ; Industrial Economics:911.2 ; Accidents and Accident Prevention:914.1 ; Probability Theory:922.1 ; Social Sciences:971

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

2-s2.0-85072209183

Scopus

1.Department of Environmental and Geographical SciencesShanghai Normal University,Shanghai,200234,China
2.School of Environmental Science and EngineeringSouthern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China
3.Department of Geographical SciencesUniversity of MarylandCollege Park,20742,United States
4.School of Finance and ManagementSOAS University of London,London,WC1H 0XG,United Kingdom
5.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),Laxenburg,A-2361,Austria
6.Hangzhou Meteorological Services,Hangzhou,China
7.Shanghai Climate CenterShanghai Meteorological Service,Shanghai,200030,China

Hu，Hengzhi,Tian，Zhan,Sun，Laixiang,et al. Synthesized trade-off analysis of flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty: An application to the central business district of Shanghai[J]. WATER RESEARCH,2019,166.

Hu，Hengzhi.,Tian，Zhan.,Sun，Laixiang.,Wen，Jiahong.,Liang，Zhuoran.,...&Liu，Junguo.(2019).Synthesized trade-off analysis of flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty: An application to the central business district of Shanghai.WATER RESEARCH,166.

Hu，Hengzhi,et al."Synthesized trade-off analysis of flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty: An application to the central business district of Shanghai".WATER RESEARCH 166(2019).